10/03 XLE Double Diagonal - Daily Update

Daily Update: XLE up over 1 st. deviation Today, not very nice to have a big move right after you enter a non-directional trade. Nevertheless, that`s why I have a plan and put contingent orders, so I don`t need to fret about market movement, some times this is a lot easier said than done.. That being said, bellow are the risk profile with possible adjustments and the dashboard.

Down-sie adjustment, considering volatility increase of +5%

Up-side adjustment, considering volatility drop of -5%. Will very likely close PUT spread and roll it up if we get there this week.

Dashboard. Price action pushing against the Top of the volatility cone.

10/03 RUT High Prob Condor - Daily Update

Daily Update: RUT moved 2 st. deviation up Today. This was very good for the position, I'm right in the middle of the condor, delta neutral and improved P&L.

One thing to note is that I`ve already made adjustments to this trade, when RUT was cutting through my down-side I closed 2 of the PUT spreads, Closed the original CALL side and re-entered the CALL spreads with half of the contracts.

Contingent Orders:
- Buy CALL spreads for .10c (GTC order)
- Buy PUT spreads for .10c (GTC order)- Stop Loss @ or bellow 302, or @ or above 425 (Day Order)**
** Increase Imp.Vol by +5% to estimate down-side, Decrease Imp.vol by -5% to estimate up-side
Bellow is the historical probabilities study. It shows how many times we RUT moved over the distance between current price and the stop loss. Still looks good

Bellow is the dashboard I use to keep track of my trades at the end of day. It helps me to see if any trend is developing. In this case, Note the price moving away from 1 st. deviation on the volatility cone, at that time I performed adjustments mentioned earlier. Now we`re back inside the cone, but we were way out for a while.

10/03 XLE Double Diagonal - Trading Plan Correction

I made a mistake and looked at the wrong place to figure out the total $ invested in the position. Updated plan follows.

09/03 Double Diagonal Daily Update

Daily Update: Started the trade Today (See separate postings for trade plan and probabilities)

Contingent Orders: Have orders for my 1st line of defense, If I get down by about 10% I'll cut my deltas in 1/2. In the beginning of the trade the adjustment will be a bit sooner than the short strikes, but within the next week these levels will be just around the short strike.

Down-side adjustment:

Up-side adjustment:

09/03 RUT High Prob Condor - Daily Update

Daily Update: No major change Today. No new adjustment planned I'll let the trade breathe. Have my stops placed at 1.5 x my cashflow as you can see the stops are quite far from the price. Bellow is the risk chart.

Contingent Orders:
- Buy CALL spreads for .10c (GTC order)
- Buy PUT spreads for .10c (GTC order)
- Stop Loss @ or bellow 300, or @ or above 432 (Day Order)

09/03 XLE Double Diagonal - Trading Plan

I started a XLE Double-Diagonal. My plan is to exit the trade with 15% profit, my stop is at 20%. Bellow is my trading plan for adjustments.

09/03 XLE Double Diagonal - Implied Probability

I also look at implied probability. Using TOS for XLE`s implied probability of success. As you can see on the risk profile bellow, the implied probability is around 66%.