XLE Decision Making

I ran a decision tree on the current situation with the XLE trade. I evaluated 3 options:
1) Do nothing
2) Roll back vertical spreads
3) Add a 2 extra double diagonal on CALL and PUT sides

I'm attaching the risk profile for the 3 options, as well as the decision making tree. One thing I noticed is that option #3 starts to win over options 1 and 2 after 3 days of time-decay. It has more profit potential, however adds an extra $400 of trading capital, and therefore pushes my stop loss to $870.

I did consider shutting down the trade, but on any scenario it was always the worst, because it gives me 100% probability of losing $500, so I took it out of the decision tree.

If XLE stays around the same price level Tomorrow I'll enter option #3.

Risk Profile Option #1

Risk Profile Option #2

Risk Profile Option #3

03/24 GLD Calendar

Trading is starting to show profits, it is up 8% with great probabilities of staying between the strikes one more day Tomorrow.

I have orders to close if it gest beyond the B/E lines, also have orders to close each calendar with 15% profit.

03/24 OIH Condor

OIH moved back down Today, still hanging around 1 st. deviation, that's good for the trade.

FYI: I'm re-evaluating adjustments in general, and very likely to stop adjusting by cutting spreads, still backtesting, but as a business, cutting the spread simply yanks too much profit from the table.

Bellow is the dashboard and risk profile. As I explained Yesterday, I'm not cutting a call spread if we go up, so my only adjustment is to cut 1 Put spread out on the down-side.

24/3 XLE Double Diagonal

I must have been tired Yesterday. I'm wondering how come I didn't realize this, but like Dan would say, where is the beef?? I must have done something wrong with the XLE adjustment, will need to re-visit Mark's video on Double Diagonals, but the second adjustment left me with no profit at expiration.

Now I'll run a decision tree to objectivelly evaluate options about this trade. My options include closing, adding or reverting Yesterday's adjustment. For now, here is the profile and dashboard.

Contingent orders to close at the levels highlighted bellow:

GLD Calendar

This one is working fine, once added a double-diagonal GLD stopped trecking outside the vol-cone, so we’re making a bit of profit.

Contingent orders to close the trade at levels highlighted bellow

OIH Condor

Moved back up Today. Because I closed 1x CALL spread it is buying me time as OIH cruises above the 1 st. Deviation on the VOL cone.

As of Today, if we go to 90.68 Tomorrow it will be down -15%, however, I am not automatically closing 1x CALL spread. The reason is the CALL insurance is still providing support to the trade, and at 90.68 Tomorrow my delta will still be pretty much flat. So if I go in and close the CALL spread, I get into a very directional position.. See two profiles for comparisson.

I can and will use the insurance to my advantage and buy some time for the market to either calm down or to continue cruising up.

Contingent Orders:
1) Close PUT spread if at or bellow 64.7

XLE Double Diagonal

Got to the second adjustment point Today. The adjustment was pre-programmed and executed automatically, which is a nice feature on TOS. Now I don’t think there is much more adjustments I’ll do to this trade, looking at the VOL cone, we’re moving over 1.5x st deviation to the up-side, and I have already executed 2 adjustments.

I have set the stop at the up-side b/e level and will shut down the trade if we get there.