Thursday, April 9, 2009

04/09 Quick post

I'm out of time Tonight, and since tomorrow is a holiday, will post later this weekend with a weekly update on the remaining trades, dashboard, probabilities, etc.

I closed the XLE double-Diagonal for a small loss Today, ran a decision table and it was better than holding it untill Monday with risk to the up-side, risk to the sideways, and profit only on a down-side move.

More on that later on the weekend. For now Happy Easter!

Wednesday, April 8, 2009

04/08 Portfolio Update

I apologize I need to make a short post Today. The market seems to have stabilized a bit and that is helping the portfolio.

OIH was closed out Today, the only thing remaining are the long insurance contracts, they were worthless so I decided to leave them there with an order to sell if OIH goes crazy in the next few days.

RUT and MNX condors are doing fine, RUT doing better yet MNX is being helped by the decrease in volatility.

XLE Double diagonal is on its way out. I'll have to decide if I take it off the table Tomorrow or if I let it run over the long weekend. Need to think about that one.

EWZ recovered from the first shot up, even though there is still an up-side bias, as of Today the trade is very close to B/E, so that's a nice and fast recovery from where it was a few days back.

Here are the dashboard and profiles for every position:
EWZ Double Diagonal
MNX 45-Day Condor

OIH 36-Day Condor

XLE Double Diagonal

RUT 52-Day Condor

Tuesday, April 7, 2009

04/07 EWZ Double Diagonal

EWZ having a hard time giving up this up-side bias. I`ve called a few brazilian friends told them to dump their holdings, need to call a few more people. :)

In the meantime, P&L enjoyed a nice recovery Today, we`re back to where we started after that big spike down.

Dashboard and Profile

04/07 MNX 45-Day Condor

MNX finally caught up with the rest of the world. Back down and inside the cone. It is nice to finally have you here MNX, enjoy the cone, please make yourself at home. :)

Dashboard and Profile:

04/07 OIH 36-Day Condor

OIH back at the 2% mark. At this juncture, the CALL side is almost at 80% profit, because of previous adjustments, we`re close to the max profit at this trade. Should OIH fall a bit further, the CALL spreads will come off and the trade be closed.

Dashboard and Profile:

04/07 XLE Double Diagonal

Great recovery! Took some time, but XLE is finally seing the light! It is great to see a trade recover after being deep down like that. Way to go XLE, let`s bring this one home!

Dashboard and Profile:

04/07 RUT 52-Day Condor

Great day all across the board. What else can I say? It was specially good to see RUT back in the "zone". Will appreciate if it stays there for the next 20 days or so :)

Note: While reviewing the risk profile, it seems that the short delta that means being down by 1.5x the cashflow oscilates between 28 and 29 for the PUT side, and 30 and 31 for the CALL side. I'm being a bit over-detailed on my trades, but I've moved the PUT stop to short delta at or bellow -29 and CALL stop to short delta at or above 31.

Dashboard and Profile: