Performance Review NDX Fast Butterfly

Link to Live trades:
FEB NDX Fast Butterfly Day-by-day review (4 trades)

So, let me start with a log of all trades (Live and backtested) for this strategy, I’ve tested the NDX Fast Butterfly for a little over one year before I started trading live, here is my log:



This is fine, but let’s also look at a simulated equity curve chart based on this data:




You’ll notice in the above picture that despite the ups and downs, categorized by a relatively smaller win-ratio (60%), the strategy makes money over time because its good win-loss ratio. Therefore, moving forward it is imperative to control the win-ratio and do not let it run out of hand.

I’ve decided to go back to the most basic factors when determining if you have a positive edge: Win-loss ratio and percent wins. With these two numbers, and the average win, you can use a very nice tool that Henry Carstens put together to test your edge, go to http://www.verticalsolutions.com/tools/pl_forecaster_pctwins.html and check it out for yourself, just plug in the variables and run a few scenarios to make sure your position is still a winner.




I hope you enjoy this new approach at looking at your trades from a different angle.

Cheers!
Gustavo

02/26 Daily Summary

Not much to report Today, OEX didn’t quite move and gracefully expired within my weekly condor. I am grateful for this week. We all (income traders) needed this break. Notice how the market seems to be navigating in calm waters. I sure hope we keep it up for the next few months!

02/26 OEX Weekly Iron Condor

OEX expired nicely in the center of the graph, gratefully accept the +8.7% ROI this week. Thank you!

02/25 Daily Summary

That of what I desire for me, I desire for everyone! Gratefully exited all my Butterflies this month, now waiting for OEX to expire Tomorrow so I can also book my profits on that weekly trade. Nice and sweet week, I sincerely wish the same for all fellow option traders!

02/25 NDX Fast Butterfly

We were soaring around 11% ROI mid morning Today, then the market pulled back quite a bit. I am still very grateful that I got slightly above my 8% goal by end of day Today. Remember, I have been in this trade for exactly 3 days.

02/25 MNX Iron Butterfly

Landed the MNX iron butterfly Today, got it with a bit over my 10% profit goal, nice and sweet ride! Thank you!

02/25 OEX Weekly Iron Condor

Ok, OEX, let’s bring another weekly deal home, I am very grateful for having learned this trade from the fellow Sheridan Mentoring California1 trading group. Thank you!