04/12 Daily Summary

Once again, my early morning assessment was partially correct, we did trade sideways, and pulled back down by end of day, didn’t quite close as a down day as I expected. In any event, that’s the benefit of non-directional trading: don’t have to nail it 100% on the head, got to make my theta for the day, countdown to expiration.
http://gustavotrades.blogspot.com/2010/04/0412-morning-assessment-sideways-down.html

04/12 NDX Iron Butterfly

Here is what I have left on the trade:
1x APR 2025 call
1x APR 2000/2025 call credit spread
2x APR 1900/1825 put credit spread
I had contingent orders to close out the call spread if I was wrong on my morning assessment, turns out no action was required! Glad to capture the extra day of time-decay, will evaluate position again Tomorrow.

04/12 NDX Fast Iron Butterfly (from 03/15)

Here is the inventory of what I have left on this position:
-2 APR 1900/1800 put credit spread
-1 APR 2025/2050 Call credit spread
I had contingent orders to flatten the trade out if I was dead wrong on my morning assessment. Didn’t do anything on the trade, I don’t want to keep on holding this “hot potato” through expiration week, so will consider pulling the plug Tomorrow.

04/12 Morning Assessment: Sideways (Down)

Ok, I might be biased, so take this with a grain of salt as they say. Quite honestly, Today’s price action looks weak to me, it is around 7:20 AM, I’ll wait a few more minutes to see how it develops. But here is my reasoning (so far): We went as high as 2000 overnight, and completely faded that move, we then traded bellow an ascending trend line I have on my charts, tried to go higher but faded again. FinViz is dark, not a lot of green on it, and VerticalSolutions is not too bullish either.. What would prove me wrong? A break above the 1998 area on /NQ; What would confirm my assumptions? A break below 1987 (target 1980) on /NQ.

04/09 Daily Summary

My early morning assessment was partially correct, in any event, I took the precautions and that saved me some bucks as we moved up. I expected it to move higher, but not that high (over 1 st. Deviation)
http://gustavotrades.blogspot.com/2010/04/0409-morning-assessment-sideways-up.html
I am honestly starting to really enjoy looking and adjusting my trades early morning vs. Trying to do it at closing hour. Moving forward will start to track my morning assessments, to see how often I can nail it down properly. Today was an example where I got the direction right, but my assessment on the move’s strength was off. Then again, the final push happened in the final trading hour, until then we were not moving past 1 st. Deviation.

04/09 NDX Iron Butterfly

Here is what I have left on the trade:
1x APR 2025 call
1x APR 2000/2025 call credit spread
2x APR 1900/1825 put credit spread

I closed one of the 2000/2025 call vertical spreads, it got me to a relatively flat profile that I felt ok with. I honestly didn’t anticipate we would keep moving higher past the 1990 zone. Will see how it looks like on Monday.

04/09 NDX Fast Iron Butterfly (from 03/22)

I closed out of the trade Today after my morning assessment, it seemed like the best thing to do and avoid leaving room to let gains dissipate if we keept moving higher. Locked +1.55% gain, not much, but at least a gain.