06/08 Daily Summary

No position on the table, I’m simply watching the market action for the next few days. Plan on entering my NDX iron butterfly around the 30 days till expiration mark. As we closed with a hammer candle pattern on the daily chart, it will be very interesting to see what tomorrow brings. Should we break this hammer then all bets are off. Also, notice how volatility came back quite a bit Today, almost a 8% drop on the VIX, if one had entered a position Yesterday, it would be in great shape Today just with the vols crunch.

06/07 Daily Summary

It seems we started the day without clear direction and the path of least resistance was down after all. The 5-day volatility chart points to a possible down-cycle to be starting up. Will continue to watch as we approach the time-frame to enter the July positions.

Performance Review MNX/NDX Iron Butterfly

Live trading Results:
FEB/11 NDX Iron Butterfly Day-by-day Review

DEC/10 NDX Iron Butterfly Day-by-day Review
NOV10 NDX Iron Butterfly - Day-by-day Review
OCT 10 NDX Iron Butterfly - Day-by-day Review
SEP NDX Iron Butterfly - Day-by-day Review
AUG NDX Iron Butterfly Day-by-day review
JUN NDX Iron Butterfly Day-by-day review
MAY NDX Iron Butterfly Day-by-day review
APR NDX Iron Butterfly Day-by-day review
MAR NDX Iron Butterfly Day-by-day review
MAR MNX Iron Butterfly Day-by-day review
FEB MNX Iron Butterfly Day-by-day review
JAN MNX Iron Butterfly Day-by-day review
10/20 OCT MNX Iron Butterfly (day-by-day review)
09/14 SEP MNX Iron Butterfly (day-by-day review)
JUL MNX Iron Butterfly (day-by-day review)

06/04 Weekly Summary

Still seems like the storm is not over yet.. We're watching a few 1.5+ st pop out here and there. By looking at the weekly chart I'd have to say I'm not very bullish, the market can always go where it wants to go, but it seems that it is still seeking that SMA 50 on the weekly. I'll be watching the daily action next week, in preparation for entering my JUL trades I want to be watching the "waters" sort of speak..

5/28 Weekly Summary

Ok, I've been absent for a few days, so here is my 5 minutes review of the week: while I don't think it is business as usual, I can point to a few indications that it is much calmer than it was a few weeks back. Look at the daily chart, we only had a few bigger than 1 st. deviationd days in the past 10 days, compared to how it was 20 days ago, it is much better. Also, the 5 day chart seems to be showing to some sort of consolidation, meaning we're not totaly biased to one side of the chart. All that being said, I'm glad I'm no longer with positions opened, but at the same time am looking for ways to stay connected, perhaps some backtesting? Or even a review of past trades, capturing some lessons learned along the way.

Cheers!

Gustavo

JUN NDX Iron Butterfly Day-by-day review

This was an extreme satisfying trade. 3 days and I got out with my target ROI! :) Most of it comes from the fact I decided to enter the JUN position regardless of the wild market conditions. I’ve made a few tweaks to the trade and made up my mind I was ready to manage whatever would come my way.
It also helped I entered later in the week due to my trip to Germany. When I saw the early morning gap on Thursday (5/20) I decided to wait for Friday (5/21), as it turns out, I entered early AM on Friday and got most of the increased volatility due to Thursday’s decline. Then it was a matter of watching the vols melt away and the profits show up.
Trade 1: From 5/21/2010 to 5/25/2010 +10.16% ROI
Day by day:

05/21 NDX Iron Butterfly
05/24 NDX Iron Butterfly
05/25 NDX Iron Butterfly

05/25 NDX Iron Butterfly – JUN/10

Ok, as we gapped down this morning I was observing the NDX and its price action, it got to about 4 points from my lower adjustment (1950), then started to bounce from there. Rather than touching the position early in the morning I’ve decided to let it ride for the extra day... As it turned out, this as a good choice as we traded to just about the same level as we closed Yesterday. With the additional Volatility crush I got to 10% on my trade and dashed for the exit! :)
Not bad, get in Friday morning, ride through the weekend, cash out 10% by Tuesday (3 days in the market) I am very grateful I got in the position this month!