Thursday, June 10, 2010

06/09 Daily Summary


Very brief update Today, sorry but got a real busy day at work.. Nothing much to say, no positions yet, noticed the 5-day volatility chart pulling a yellow bar to the down-side.. NDX didn't quite take over Yesterday's low, yet this is still a bearish situation to keep an eye out for.

Tuesday, June 8, 2010

06/08 Daily Summary

No position on the table, I’m simply watching the market action for the next few days. Plan on entering my NDX iron butterfly around the 30 days till expiration mark. As we closed with a hammer candle pattern on the daily chart, it will be very interesting to see what tomorrow brings. Should we break this hammer then all bets are off. Also, notice how volatility came back quite a bit Today, almost a 8% drop on the VIX, if one had entered a position Yesterday, it would be in great shape Today just with the vols crunch.

Monday, June 7, 2010

06/07 Daily Summary



It seems we started the day without clear direction and the path of least resistance was down after all. The 5-day volatility chart points to a possible down-cycle to be starting up. Will continue to watch as we approach the time-frame to enter the July positions.

Friday, May 28, 2010

5/28 Weekly Summary


Ok, I've been absent for a few days, so here is my 5 minutes review of the week: while I don't think it is business as usual, I can point to a few indications that it is much calmer than it was a few weeks back. Look at the daily chart, we only had a few bigger than 1 st. deviationd days in the past 10 days, compared to how it was 20 days ago, it is much better. Also, the 5 day chart seems to be showing to some sort of consolidation, meaning we're not totaly biased to one side of the chart. All that being said, I'm glad I'm no longer with positions opened, but at the same time am looking for ways to stay connected, perhaps some backtesting? Or even a review of past trades, capturing some lessons learned along the way.
Cheers!
Gustavo

Wednesday, May 26, 2010

JUN NDX Iron Butterfly Day-by-day review

This was an extreme satisfying trade. 3 days and I got out with my target ROI! :) Most of it comes from the fact I decided to enter the JUN position regardless of the wild market conditions. I’ve made a few tweaks to the trade and made up my mind I was ready to manage whatever would come my way.
It also helped I entered later in the week due to my trip to Germany. When I saw the early morning gap on Thursday (5/20) I decided to wait for Friday (5/21), as it turns out, I entered early AM on Friday and got most of the increased volatility due to Thursday’s decline. Then it was a matter of watching the vols melt away and the profits show up.
Trade 1: From 5/21/2010 to 5/25/2010 +10.16% ROI
Day by day:

05/21 NDX Iron Butterfly
05/24 NDX Iron Butterfly
05/25 NDX Iron Butterfly