09/03 Double Diagonal Daily Update

Daily Update: Started the trade Today (See separate postings for trade plan and probabilities)

Contingent Orders: Have orders for my 1st line of defense, If I get down by about 10% I'll cut my deltas in 1/2. In the beginning of the trade the adjustment will be a bit sooner than the short strikes, but within the next week these levels will be just around the short strike.

Down-side adjustment:

Up-side adjustment:

09/03 RUT High Prob Condor - Daily Update

Daily Update: No major change Today. No new adjustment planned I'll let the trade breathe. Have my stops placed at 1.5 x my cashflow as you can see the stops are quite far from the price. Bellow is the risk chart.

Contingent Orders:
- Buy CALL spreads for .10c (GTC order)
- Buy PUT spreads for .10c (GTC order)
- Stop Loss @ or bellow 300, or @ or above 432 (Day Order)

09/03 XLE Double Diagonal - Trading Plan

I started a XLE Double-Diagonal. My plan is to exit the trade with 15% profit, my stop is at 20%. Bellow is my trading plan for adjustments.

09/03 XLE Double Diagonal - Implied Probability

I also look at implied probability. Using TOS for XLE`s implied probability of success. As you can see on the risk profile bellow, the implied probability is around 66%.

09/03 XLE Double Diagonal - Historical Probability

Now let`s talk about probabilities. My first study is a historical probability study. I`m looking at how many times XLE moved beyond my Break-even points for the number of trading days left (there are about 25 trading days if I want to close the position Friday before expiration week). Using 2008 as my base year, it shows that my historical probabilities are around 92%. Using the entire 5-year data-set, my probabilities are around 98%

09/03 RUT High Prob Iron Condor

Position update: No major change Today. Down 7%

Adjustments from original position: I closed the 1st set of CALL spreads when they reached .13c. My next step was to re-enter the CALL side with 1/2 the numbers of my original position. I also closed 2 PUT spreads as the RUT started breaching my Volatility Cone (see picture).

Next adjustments: No new adjustment planned I'll let the trade breathe. Have my stops placed at 1.5 x my cashflow as you can see the stops are quite far from the price. Bellow is the risk chart.

APR contracts

Hi there, I'll start posting all my APR/09 options trades here at the blog. My goal, portfolio and positions will be posted as I go along with it.