15/03 XLE Double Diagonal - Daily Update

Daily Update: The trade made it through the 1st week. Now that we got the theta and the trade is a bit more robust, I`m pushing the adjustment level further away (somewhere around the half-point between the short-strike and break-even). I`m also closing the opposite side and evaluating re-opening if and only if it reaches one of the adjustment points.

Contingent Orders:
If XLE at or above 44.80 (+2.25 st. deviations):
a) Close PUT diagonal
b) Buy 3x 44/48 CALL Vertical spreads
c) Evaluate where to re-open PUT diagonal (not automatic, analyze risk profile)

If XLE at or bellow 32.65 (-6.0 st. deviations):
a) Close CALL diagonal
b) Buy 3x 33/28 PUT Vertical spreads
c) Evaluate where to re-open CALL diagonal (not automatic, analyze risk profile)

Risk profile: TOS gives me only 16.4% Probability of needing an adjustment on the up-side, that`s great.
Dashboard: Trade is profitable despite large volatility drop this week

Historical Probability: For 20 trading days, the historical chances of staying within the range are awesome!

15/03 RUT High Prob - Daily Update

Daily Update: Last week was rough on this position. Not very confortable to watch RUT moving up 2 st. deviation like it is nothing. Nevertheless, being emotional can only make matters worse. I evaluated this position in terms of probabilities and I believe they look good.

Contingent Orders:
- Buy CALL spreads for .10c (GTC order)
- Buy PUT spreads for .10c (GTC order)
- Stop Loss @ or bellow 310, or @ or above 422 (Day Order)**** Increase Imp.Vol by +5% to estimate down-side, Decrease Imp.vol by -5% to estimate up-side

Risk Profile: Based on TOS probability study, there is only 17% chance of hitting the 422 level next week, meaning 83% chance the trade will make it through.


Dashboard: P&L trend makes me unconfortable. In the past the emotion would make me go crazy and hedge this trade all over. Right now, I`ll stand the ground and trade with the odds.

Historical Probabilities: For the next 20 trading days, probabilities still look good for the trade.