16/03 OIH Low Prob Condor - Daily Update

Daily Update: Just started this trade, sorry I have to run, but there is nothing much to add except here are the profile, trading plan and historical probabilities.

Contingent Orders:
a) Close CALL spreads for .09c (GTC)
b) Close PUT spreads for .09c (GTC)
1) Close 1x PUT spread if at or bellow 61.70
2) Close 1x CALL spread if at or above 84.70
Historical Probabilities for the next 20 days

Trading management plan:

16/03 XLE Double Diagonal - Daily Update

Daily Update: XLE moved a bit up Today, still under the 1 st. deviation volatility cone, which is allowing us to stay at or around the B/E zone for the trade.

Contingent Orders:
If XLE at or above 44.80:
a) Close PUT diagonal
b) Buy 3x 44/48 CALL Vertical spreads
c) Evaluate where to re-open PUT diagonal (not automatic, analyze risk profile)

If XLE at or bellow 32.65:
a) Close CALL diagonal
b) Buy 3x 33/28 PUT Vertical spreadc) Evaluate where to re-open CALL diagonal (not automatic, analyze risk profile)

16/03 RUT High Prob Condor - Daily Update

Daily Update: RUT bounced from the 400 price zone. That was good for the position. Now the probabilities are even better.

Contingent Orders:
- Buy CALL spreads for .10c (GTC order)
- Buy PUT spreads for .10c (GTC order)
- Stop Loss @ or bellow 292, or @ or above 422 (Day Order)**
** Increase Imp.Vol by +5% to estimate down-side, Decrease Imp.vol by -5% to estimate up-side

16/03 Trade candidate: GLD Calendar

Bellow is the risk profile and price chart. Note it is a bearish calendar, so the risk on the up-side is greater if GLD turns back up.

16/03 Trade Candidate: OIH Low Prob

Here is a candidate for this week: I've been thinking about doing 2 or 3 Low Probs, including a RUT and a few other candidates. I liked this OIH profile.

Risk profile: Listed are the first adjustment layers, adjusting when down 10% by removing one of the spreads. The insurance will keep the trade alive this week even if it gets hit by a hurricane.

Week of 03-16 - ETFs VIPES

This blog entry is simply a collection of thoughts as I look for ETFs to enter my next trades. I'm looking for candidates to a Low Prob Iron Condor as well as small calendars and iron butterflies. As I go through, I'll wrte my comments on each ETF I track.

SLV: Never traded, however the VIPEs don't look too bad, seems like it is taking a retracement or reversal from previous up-trend. Has been steady for the last few days.

USO: Seems like it has been in a down-trend, has been jumping around over 1 st. deviation for the past few days.

EEM: Quite a few gaps. It still is inside a large channel. Not too jumpy lately.

OIH: Not trending, it has been jumping around over 1 st. deviation in quite a few days recently.

RUT: Took a serious dive, and now jumping over 2 st. deviation. Approach with much care

XLE: Had been in a chanel, broke down from it, seem to be tracing back. Note it has not been jumping around too much, only 3 days with over 2 st. deviation in the past 60 days.

TLT: Seems like it has been moving down. Price action not too bad, just about 5 big days (over 2 st. deviation) in the past 60.

DBA: Behaving well. Channeling. Price action is great, only 3 days with over 2 st. deviation in the past 60.

DIA: Was dragged down, price action is choppy, quite a few large days (7 with on or around 2 st. deviation)

GLD: Price action is decent, only 3 large days. Seems to be going back into a channel.

IWM: Recovering from a down-drag, had about 6 large days, but quite a few with over 1 st. deviation

MDY: Recovering from the down-drag, but with only 4 large days, price action is quite decent, not too many 1 st. deviation days either.

RTH: Not so sure about its price action, had a 3 st. deviation day and quite a few that are on or around 1 st. deviation. Has been dragged down as well, and seems to be recovering.

SMH: This one seems to still be in the channel. Price action not too jumpy. Currently at the top of its range.

SPY: Has been in a down-trend for a while, price action not so good, quite a few large days, including a -3 st. deviation day on the down-side.

EWZ: Very jumpy price action, quite a few 2 st. deviation days. Seems to be insie a channel.