03/26 GLD Calendar

The calendar is up to 10%, I have an automatic order to close it at my target of 15%, between now and expiration my chances are only getting better!

03/26 OIH Condor

Today the PUT side was closed for 80% of the original credit, not all I have left is the CALL side. I'm no longer adjusting the LP condors by closing spreads, it deteriorates the trade way too much. My next session with Dan will be to discus condors and their adjustments.

I'm leaning on the no-touch approach for HP and Insurance + Hedging for LP. Have been doing a lot of back-testing and the results are promissing.

For now, the OIH trade is still on the board and with good probabilities:
76% probability of expiring profitable
99% probability of staying through the weekend.

Bellow are profile and dashboard:

03/26 XLE Double Diagonal

XLE didn't move much Today, I can enjoy the theta, keep it up XLE.. Or better yet, take a break and go down for a while :)

92% probability of staying in the trade over the weekend
47% probability of expiring profitable

Bellow are profile and dashboard

03/26 RUT Condor

RUT moved 1.3 st. deviation Today, there is still the 450 zone of protection, and the probabilities are very good.

98.5% of staying in the trade Tomorrow
79.86% probability of expiring profitable
96% historical probability of expiring profitable

Bellow are risk profile, dashboard and historical probabilities sheet.
Contingent orders to close if and only if:
Short CALL delta reaches +30
Shor PUT delta reaches -28

03/26 Use of Short Delta as stop

I was looking at my RUT Condor this morning and noticed the levels at wich I'd be down 1.5x my cashflow were a bit off from what I saw Yesterday on the TOS profile chart.

In a nutshell, it was telling me that based on Today's live price action I'd have to close the trade wen my short delta gets to around 30 on the CALL side and -28 on the PUT side.

That makes sense: I started the trade with short 8 or 9on each side, when they go to being short 28, it is telling me the probabilities are no longer favorable and the best course of action at that point is to preserve capital and exit at a loss.

Bellow are the profile charts I'm talking about:
PUT Short delta
P/L on the PUT side (~ -1.5x cashflow)

CALL Short delta

P/L on CALL side (~ -1.5x cashflow)