Tuesday, May 19, 2009

5/19 DIA Technical Analisys

Briefly, two possible scenarios based on the short-term, 1 hour chart.

5/19 RUT Technical Analysis

I've noticed we broke up to the 495 price zone. Like I mentioned before, there is plenty of resistance on the up-side, RUT is once again brushing against the 497 zone, notice in a 10-day 1 hour chart how many days we bounced around this level.

To the down-side, the 485 zone will also be an important target zone. It will find support on the Moving averages and recent price bounces in this area. Where it will go it remains to be seen, I like to explore the two possible options.

First, the Up-side continuation: I've noticed we didn't push that high in the previous few days, this could be a signal that we're not so excited about going much higher.

Now, the down-side. We broke the 5EMA in Today's last hour of trading, while this is not such a strong movement in my mind, it could bring some follow through, provided that we have some retracement, The next push could go beyond the 13 EMA and into the 487 zone.

DIA Iron Butterfly

I added this position Today after watching several videos with Dan Harvey and performing a few backtestings with TOS thinkback. I'm convinced this is a good strategy, a bit tricky to master, but worth the efforts.


SPY Calendar

Added the new position Today, I ran the VIPES for my targets and liked this set-up on SPY, It is slightly bearish, and we're at a low Volatility point.


05/19 RUT 50-Day Condor

Position is right in the center, yield is up to 10%, I've added the levels to protect my profits at around half of current P&L.



5/19 DIA 41-Day Double Diagonal

I exited the position Today, the reasons behind were the fact we're almost 2 weeks on the trade and not over 5% profit, DIA has been flat for this period and the Volatility has collapsed quite a bit, giving me a much smaller profit potential at expiration. In summary, the volatility drop created a bigger sag than I wanted on the trade.

When I started the position, the profit potential in the middle of the position was over 20% ($125), Today it was around $60 (10%).