19/03 RUT LP - Santucci way

I've added a paper trade to follow Mark Santucci's method. Will start blogging it next week, am just too tired Today... Alergy season

19/03 GLD Calendar

Not much to update on, got a bit of Theta Today.

Probabilities of Success:
91.4% probability of being adjustment free Tomorrow

Contingent orders
Close if GLD at or above 97.5
Close if GLD at or bellow 86

19/03 OIH Condor

I had contingent orders in place for being down by 10%. Today OIH surged up and volatility didn't go down, the result was a discrepancy between actual prices and my contingent ordes. I was watching the market and noticed that the trade was down 10% and still $1 away from my order, so I because I already knew what to do (cut 1 CALL spread), I went ahead and did it.

For the future, estimating P&L is very tricky, you never know what the implied volatility will do, you can only guess.. Tomorrow I'll be looking at changing my condors to adjust based on the delta of the short strikes, at least I know the delta will self-adjust based on the volatility.

Probabilities of success:
99% probability of being adjustment free Tomorrow
68.46% implied probability of expiring profitable
85% historical probability of being in the money by Friday before expiration week

Contingent orders:
1) No CALL-side contingent
2) Close 1x PUT spread if at or bellow 62.5

19/03 XLE Double Diagonal

Hit adjustment point on XLE Today. Gapped up at the opening, my contingent orders are always scheduled to trigger at 7:00 and so it did. It automatically cut the deltas down and I added the PUT diagonal later on the day (around 11:00 PST).

Probabilities of Success:
70% probability of adjustment free Tomorrow
43.8% implied probability of expiring profitable
65% historical probability of being profitable Friday before expiration

Contingent orders:
XLE at or above 46.25:
1) Buy 2x 44/48 CALL verticals
XLE at or bellow 40.35:
1) Buy 2x 41/38 PUT verticals

19/03 RUT Condor

Lived to trade another day. RUT did not hit the stop loss, as I said Yesterday, 33% chance is better than 0%. Still in the trade, still managing it.

Probability of Success:
61% probability of adjustment free Tomorrow
69% implied probability of expiring profitable
72% historical probability of expiring profitable

Contingent orders
:- Buy CALL spreads for .10c (GTC order)
- Buy PUT spreads for .10c (GTC order)
- Stop Loss @ or bellow 295, or @ or above 422.5 (Day Order)**
** Increase Imp.Vol by +5% to estimate down-side, Decrease Imp.vol by -5% to estimate up-side