Thursday, May 14, 2009
5/14 DIA 41-Day Double Diagonal
Not much change from Yesterday. Only thing to notice is that DIA ended the day flat and that volatility dropped, taking some of Today's theta profit from us.
5/14 RUT 50-Day Condor
RUT got back to the 480 price zone Today. I'm still weary of the down-side risk on the trade and am ready to get out of it if we start dropping bellow Today's low. See my technical discussion posting for more details. For now, moving to the up-side and staying flat are good options.
05/14 RUT Technical Discussion
I'll start to add some technical analysis to my trading blog, this will allow me to capture my thinking process, and possibly lead to some interesting opportunities for directional trades.
First, let me start by saying that I use Fibonacci Retracements quite a lot, I added a posting explaining it on the "Technical Corner" of the blog. Ok, let's take a look at Today's action:
First thing to notice is that Today's up-swing while welcome, can be interpreted two ways: a retracement before continuing down, or a reversal back up. Tomorrow might tell us the rest of the story, but one way or another, let me look at possible price targets for Tomorrow.
Before we continue, one thing to remember is the Friday's are usually low volume, and many times the markets tend to move sideways, that is even better for the position.
The Down-side possibility is a continuation towards 460/450 area, this would continue to fire up stops from the people that are still holding their long positions, so I'd expect the down-side to have some resistance, but based on Yesterday's action, not too much resistance, given the down-side seems to be much faster.
The up-side will also face some resistance. You can see that Today's price action gave us a break of the SMA21 and a Fibonacci retracement, so it can continue to push higher, possibly reaching the SMA 50.
Always a good idea to also look at the bigger picture. I'm a bit more concerned about the down-side when I see the daily chart. Notice how the up-trend was drastically interrupted, firing up past the SMA 21. Today we reached the SMA21 and faded from it, this could possibly be a re-test before continuing dow.
First, let me start by saying that I use Fibonacci Retracements quite a lot, I added a posting explaining it on the "Technical Corner" of the blog. Ok, let's take a look at Today's action:
First thing to notice is that Today's up-swing while welcome, can be interpreted two ways: a retracement before continuing down, or a reversal back up. Tomorrow might tell us the rest of the story, but one way or another, let me look at possible price targets for Tomorrow.
Before we continue, one thing to remember is the Friday's are usually low volume, and many times the markets tend to move sideways, that is even better for the position.
The Down-side possibility is a continuation towards 460/450 area, this would continue to fire up stops from the people that are still holding their long positions, so I'd expect the down-side to have some resistance, but based on Yesterday's action, not too much resistance, given the down-side seems to be much faster.
The up-side will also face some resistance. You can see that Today's price action gave us a break of the SMA21 and a Fibonacci retracement, so it can continue to push higher, possibly reaching the SMA 50.
Always a good idea to also look at the bigger picture. I'm a bit more concerned about the down-side when I see the daily chart. Notice how the up-trend was drastically interrupted, firing up past the SMA 21. Today we reached the SMA21 and faded from it, this could possibly be a re-test before continuing dow.
If the bulls take over, they'll have to push RUT past the SMA21 once again before they can gain the upper hand.
On my next postings I'll look at what this means to my RUT HP.
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