03/26 XLE Double Diagonal

XLE didn't move much Today, I can enjoy the theta, keep it up XLE.. Or better yet, take a break and go down for a while :)

92% probability of staying in the trade over the weekend
47% probability of expiring profitable

Bellow are profile and dashboard

03/26 RUT Condor

RUT moved 1.3 st. deviation Today, there is still the 450 zone of protection, and the probabilities are very good.

98.5% of staying in the trade Tomorrow
79.86% probability of expiring profitable
96% historical probability of expiring profitable

Bellow are risk profile, dashboard and historical probabilities sheet.
Contingent orders to close if and only if:
Short CALL delta reaches +30
Shor PUT delta reaches -28

03/26 Use of Short Delta as stop

I was looking at my RUT Condor this morning and noticed the levels at wich I'd be down 1.5x my cashflow were a bit off from what I saw Yesterday on the TOS profile chart.

In a nutshell, it was telling me that based on Today's live price action I'd have to close the trade wen my short delta gets to around 30 on the CALL side and -28 on the PUT side.

That makes sense: I started the trade with short 8 or 9on each side, when they go to being short 28, it is telling me the probabilities are no longer favorable and the best course of action at that point is to preserve capital and exit at a loss.

Bellow are the profile charts I'm talking about:
PUT Short delta
P/L on the PUT side (~ -1.5x cashflow)

CALL Short delta

P/L on CALL side (~ -1.5x cashflow)

03/25 GLD Calendar

P&L dropped a bit Today, still in the middle of the chart. Bellow is risk profile

Contingent orders to close if beyond the levels in the chart bellow:

03/25 OIH Condor

P&L getting better, will OIH come back inside the cone? Only future will tell.

Probability of expiring in profit = 73%

Contingent order:
Close 1x PUT if at or bellow 63.50

Bellow are profile and dashboard:

03/25 XLE Double Diagonal

Added the PUT and CALL diagonals as I planned Yesterday. Now there is some profit potential on my risk graph. I don't plan on adjusting it any longer, so my contingent orders are stops at the levels on the risk graph.

Probability of profit by expiration is 46.40%

Bellow is risk profile and Dashboard.

03/25 RUT HP - MAY09

Started a new HP for MAY contracts. I've decided to drastically reduce my size and focus on the craft and not to worry about P&L. The plan for this trade is simple: stay in it untill get the profits. Or bail out if we go down by 1.5x my cashflow. I'll execute this trade month-after-month and my expectation of profits on the long run is 75%.

With time I can understand how this trade works and better manage it, but so far I've been adusting all my HP to loss, so I'll just stick with a no-touch plan for a while. I've estimated that -1.5x cashflow equates to a delta of .22 on the PUT side and .27 on the CALL side, so I'm setting the contingent orders based on Delta, so I don't have to spend too much time every day adjusting the stop by RUT's price level.

Probabilities:
84% implied probability it will expire profitable
98% historical probability it will expire profitable

Bellow is the risk profile and trade plan.