15/03 RUT High Prob - Daily Update

Daily Update: Last week was rough on this position. Not very confortable to watch RUT moving up 2 st. deviation like it is nothing. Nevertheless, being emotional can only make matters worse. I evaluated this position in terms of probabilities and I believe they look good.

Contingent Orders:
- Buy CALL spreads for .10c (GTC order)
- Buy PUT spreads for .10c (GTC order)
- Stop Loss @ or bellow 310, or @ or above 422 (Day Order)**** Increase Imp.Vol by +5% to estimate down-side, Decrease Imp.vol by -5% to estimate up-side

Risk Profile: Based on TOS probability study, there is only 17% chance of hitting the 422 level next week, meaning 83% chance the trade will make it through.


Dashboard: P&L trend makes me unconfortable. In the past the emotion would make me go crazy and hedge this trade all over. Right now, I`ll stand the ground and trade with the odds.

Historical Probabilities: For the next 20 trading days, probabilities still look good for the trade.