Probabilities of success:
Per TOS there is 56% probability this trade will adjustment-free Tomorrow.
68% implied proability it will expire within the Break-even lines and pay out
75% historical probability it will be between break-even lines by friday before exp. week
Contingent orders
If XLE at or above 44.80:
a) Close PUT diagonal
b) Buy 3x 44/48 CALL Vertical spreads
c) Evaluate where to re-open PUT diagonal (not automatic, analyze risk profile)
If XLE at or bellow 32.65:
a) Close CALL diagonal
b) Buy 3x 33/28 PUT Vertical spread
c) Evaluate where to re-open CALL diagonal (not automatic, analyze risk profile)
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