19/03 OIH Condor

I had contingent orders in place for being down by 10%. Today OIH surged up and volatility didn't go down, the result was a discrepancy between actual prices and my contingent ordes. I was watching the market and noticed that the trade was down 10% and still $1 away from my order, so I because I already knew what to do (cut 1 CALL spread), I went ahead and did it.

For the future, estimating P&L is very tricky, you never know what the implied volatility will do, you can only guess.. Tomorrow I'll be looking at changing my condors to adjust based on the delta of the short strikes, at least I know the delta will self-adjust based on the volatility.

Probabilities of success:
99% probability of being adjustment free Tomorrow
68.46% implied probability of expiring profitable
85% historical probability of being in the money by Friday before expiration week

Contingent orders:
1) No CALL-side contingent
2) Close 1x PUT spread if at or bellow 62.5