As far as I can tell, all my trades survived this week, they're still in the table. On the not-so bright side, they were all adjusted one way or the other. Now we`ll need som time to allow theta to take care of the cost of adjusting.
One of the realizations I had this week is the fact that adjusting condors may not be the best answer after all.. What if you simply allowed the trade to work (or not), and placed your stops at 1.5x times your original cashflow? I`ll be looking into that over the weekend. Kudos to TrackingCR for noticing that too and making a comment on the risk profile for the RUT HP.
Here is a collection of risk profiles. I`ll post again later on the weekend with a detail plan of action for Monday for each Trade.
RUT Condor
XLE Double-Diagonal
OIH Condor
GLD Calendar
GLD Calendar
2 comments:
Gustavo, I think adjusting condors makes sense on the downside in a bear market...
For the upside, You can maybe just use the 1.5x cash flow? Maybe backtesting would help.
I'm studying the option of simply let the High Prob ride until it hits 1.5x cashflow. Seems to me you'd win about 75% of the time.
Backtesting helps, but I don't really trust the data, it seems too messy. Specially if you go back to 03, 04, and 05
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