Tuesday, March 17, 2009

17/03 GLD Calendar - Daily Update

I entered the GLD calendar Today. I didn`t get filled Yesterday, got it Today. Bellow is the trading plan, chart and risk profile. As of now, my goal is to get in and get out, but if I need to adjust I`ll add to it and turn into a double-diagonal.

I wondered why I got filled so quickly, the mark was at 1.5, I offered 1.53 and got in. See the chart and you`ll notice I was down by the end of the day. Bad fill happens.

Contingent Orders (for end-of day):
a) Sell Calendar for 1.78 GTC (15% profit)
1) GLD on or above 93: Add 95 CALL calendar (Day order to trigger at 12:30 PST)
2) GLD on or bellow 85: Add 84 PUT Calendar (Day order to trigger at 12:30 PST)






17/03 OIH Condor - Daily Update

No major changes from Yesterday, just updated levels for 1st adjustment. Plan is to cut 1 spread if OIH gets to any of the layers displayed on the profile chart.

As you can see on TOS, the probabilities of needing to adjust Tomorrow are very small, regardless of that, the contingent orders are in place and ready, you never now.

Contingent Orders

a) Close CALL spreads for .09c (GTC)
b) Close PUT spreads for .09c (GTC)
1) Close 1x PUT spread if at or bellow 61.70
2) Close 1x CALL spread if at or above 84.70


03/17 XLE Double Diagonal - Daily Update

Daily Update: XLE moved a bit over 1 st. deviation Today. Normally it wouldn't be a big deal, however, it is moving 1 st. deviation pretty much for the duration of the trade, approaching the top of the volatility cone, see dashboard.

As per TOS, there is 25% chance we'll hit the adjustment point Tomorrow. The entry orders are there.

Contingent Orders:
If XLE at or above 44.80:
a) Close PUT diagonal
b) Buy 3x 44/48 CALL Vertical spreads
c) Evaluate where to re-open PUT diagonal (not automatic, analyze risk profile)

If XLE at or bellow 32.65:
a) Close CALL diagonal
b) Buy 3x 33/28 PUT Vertical spread
c) Evaluate where to re-open CALL diagonal (not automatic, analyze risk profile)

17/03 RUT High Prob - Daily Update

Daily Update: We had over 1 st. deviation up Today, the position is once again under water. At this point, I'm still with the plan and if it hits the stop then it is part of life. One way or another I'm re-thinking my approach to High Prob condors, right now I have Seth's no-touch approach on my paper account.

As per TOS, the probability of hitting my stop Tomorrow is less than 5%, so it gives me with 95% chances of staying up and alive one more day.

Contingent Orders:
- Buy CALL spreads for .10c (GTC order)
- Buy PUT spreads for .10c (GTC order)
- Stop Loss @ or bellow 295, or @ or above 424 (Day Order)**
** Increase Imp.Vol by +5% to estimate down-side, Decrease Imp.vol by -5% to estimate up-side