Friday, April 24, 2009

04/24 OIH 30-Day Condor

OIH pushed high Today, the position still in a decent shape considering we're hugging the up-side zone since the beginning. Now it is time to close th PUT spread and take our profits in a pull back.

I've added the profile for how the trade will look like closing the PUT spread and IF need to hedge just in the case OIH continues UP.

04/24 EWZ Double Diagonal

OK, I regret not closing down the position once its P&L went back down from 8%. Now it is too late to cry over spilled milk, so let's manage it! The probabilities are not so hot, given we still have the adjustment card to play, things can get fixed if we continue up.

Bellow are the current scenario, as well as an updated historical probability chart and risk profile if we hit the 45.30 adjustment level.

MNX 45-Day Condor

MNX has been pushing higher just about every day this week except Monday. Still with high (82%) historical probability of success and over 70% chance of being fine on Monday.

RUT 52-Day Condor

Another day to test the patience and perseverance on all my positions. RUT is no exception to the rule. RUT pushed back up to 480. The position is down 10%, there is still good chances RUT will back off, in any event the contingent orders are in place for $ protection.