Wednesday, June 3, 2009

06/03 5-Day VIPES as of 06/02

06/03 SPY Double Diagonal

Entered this trade Today, it is Double Diagonal time, I plan on adding another one on DIA early next week.

06/03 DIA Iron Butterfly

Great recovery Today, I hope we have a few days without movement and the position will be golden!

06/03 SPY Calendar

Took profits out of the position Today. After it was all said and done I realized I forgot to consider the commission costs on my take profit order, so ended up taking less than 15%. One way or another, it is good to bring profits on another June position

06/03 MDY 30-Day Condor

Released a recovery plan for the position, see details on Today's posting. I decided to go with the Iron Butterfly, as it neutralizes any Vega risk.

06/03 RUT 30-Day Condor

Position still outside the cone, taking it day by day.

RUT 50-Day Condor

Today's retracement was a good thing. Still outside the 1 st. deviation volatility cone, however, the trade still has a lot of time to recover.

MDY 30-Day Condor - Recovery plan

As it turns out, I got a gift. Volatility increased and the MDY that seemed completely lost to Max Loss got a recovery. As of right now, it is down 15%, compared with being down 23% Monday, that's 8% recovery.

The way it is, the position will basically end up negative for the month, so I've decided to add to the trade as an effort to bring it home profitable. I'm confortable with doing so, my goal is to bring profits, it doesn't matter exactly how. So, let's look at options:

Here is the trade as it stands, we're approaching the down-side risk zone.
Option 1: Add an Iron Butterfly
Option 2: Adding a Calendar

06/03 DIA Iron Butterfly Pre-game

I have contingent orders to touch-up the position if we start leaning to the down-side or up-side. At this point, my goal is to keep on managing the trade, it still has a lot of potential for profits. The biggest challenge thus far has been controling the trade because of its high gamma.

06/03 SPY Calendar Pre-game

I have an OCO order to take profits or add a new calendar if SPY closes at or above the break-even on the current calendar. I'm expecting to be out of the Trade Today.

06/03 MDY 30-Day Condor Pre-game

I considered adding a calendar to the position, but comparing the before and after, I realized I'm adding a lot of risk for a bit of Theta.. So I'm not sure it is worth it. There is simply not much time left on JUN expiration to make a calendar work.

So far, nothing to be done with the trade except take it off the table. I might exit it Today.

06/03 RUT 30-Day Condor Pre-game

Not much to be done here, except watching vega and theta risk. I'm still holding the trade expecting RUT to give up this up-swing.

06/03 RUT 50-Day Condor - Pre-game

I have an order to halt the position if RUT goes at or above 533. Because I'm using contingent orders, I wanted to test simply hedging the position, this will give me time to exit when I feel like it. And who knows, the market may retrace and still pose a profit.






06/03 Pre-game preparation

Thanks to my wife's suggestion, I started taking the time in the morning to pre-plan my trades and action items at different price levels. I used to do this at the end of the day, but with the time zone difference in Brazil, doing it before the market opens is far more productive for me.

So, starting Today, I'll be posting pre-game blogs for all my income positions.

Cheers!
Gustavo