Wednesday, April 7, 2010

04/07 Daily Summary





Today I started the morning exactly the way I want to do for Q2: Exercising! I hit the gymn around 6 am, then got myself a cup of coffee and spent from 7 to 8 doing a morning analysis of market conditions. I’ve noticed that my brain and analyzing skills work a lot better when I use them with a fresh frame of mind, after a quick workout, fresh cold shower and hot cup of coffee. This will become one of my performance goals for Q2.
So, back to trading.. I noticed we were trading side-ways with a bearish tone and decided to leave two of my positions alone. I did take some condorizing action in one of the butterflies, wanted to take advantage of an early-morning pull-back to do it, just in case the market changed during the day and became bullish out of a sudden (happened too many times this past month and a half, hasn’t it?). So I condorized one trade and left two alone. Plan to do the same review Tomorrow.
Take note: Another performance goal for Q2 may be this early morning evaluation of market conditions. This gives me some frame of mind going into the day, and actually helps when I see the market behaving against what I was thinking, case in point: Sometime during the day I did a quick peak on price, and noticed NDX trading higher, then re-evaluated my assumptions and realized it was likely to pull back, sure enough it did not hold prices at those higher levels and came back. Not saying this works every time, but it is worth checking and tracking to see how many times it does, right?

04/07 NDX Iron Butterfly






I didn’t do anything to the position Today, so far so good, looks like to be in the path to recovery. Patience and a pull-back are two factors I need for this trade at this point.

04/07 NDX Fast Iron Butterfly (from 03/22)



Here is the inventory of what I have left on this position:
-1 APR 2025/2075 Call credit spread
-1 APR 1900/1825 Put Credit spread
As you can see, instead of closing the trade this morning, I have opted to condorize it. Moved my short contracts out of the money and will ride the position for a few extra days. May just close it Tomorrow, depends on what I see as the market conditions.

04/07 NDX Fast Iron Butterfly (from 03/15)






Here is the inventory of what I have left on this position:
-2 APR 1900/1800 put credit spread
+1 MAY 2050 call
-1 APR 1950/1850 Put credit spread
-1 APR 1950/2050 Call credit spread
As I analyzed the position, I decided to leave it alone for one more day, the worse that can happen is we come back to where we were a few days ago and I pull the plug. On the other hand, if we go down Tomorrow it will further help the trade and it may make sense to condorize it. So far I have not seen a good way to condorize the position without leaving it exposed to a lot more risk than reward.