Sunday, March 29, 2009

03/29 OIH 36-day Condor

Trading the Plan:
I've cut 1x CALL spread when the position was down by 10%. Bellow is the trade plan. Last week the PUT spreads were closed when they reached 80% of profit potential.

Notice: Once I made the CALL adjustment, I went on Research & Development mode to figure out a better way to handle condors, cutting the spread is not the best way to do it, because it leaves the risk on the table but cuts away your profits.



Probabilities:
With 14 trading days to go, and without the PUT-side risk, historical probability of expiring in the money is 96%. TOS gives me 84% of implied probability to expire in the money

Volatility Cone & Dashboard:
Trade is recovering very well. OIH moving back inside the volatility cone, which is a nice way to bring in profits.
Contingent Orders: Instead of cutting one extra CALL spread, I've decided to simply shut down if we hit -18% ROI

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