Monday, March 30, 2009

03/30 MNX 45-day Condor

Here is the study I did on MNX prior to getting in a 45-day condor. I performed this study to all ETFs and Stocks I follow and trade, selected MNX, IBM and USO as the best profiles and decided to settle on MNX.

1) Price action:
Here I want to see if how is it behaving for the past 90, 60 and 30 days. You can see MNX had very few days with extreme price movement. Also, notice on the 5-Day chart that price seems to be following an oscillating pattern, to me, that indicates the index isn't trending.

2) Price chart and Volatility
There are plenty of technical levels of support and resistance. The 1 st. deviation volatility Cone is well placed inside the condor and the Implied Volatility is in the middle of the range

3) Probabilities:
With 35 trading days to go, there is over 85% historical probability of success. TOS give me about 83% implied probability of success.

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