09/03 XLE Double Diagonal - Historical Probability

Now let`s talk about probabilities. My first study is a historical probability study. I`m looking at how many times XLE moved beyond my Break-even points for the number of trading days left (there are about 25 trading days if I want to close the position Friday before expiration week). Using 2008 as my base year, it shows that my historical probabilities are around 92%. Using the entire 5-year data-set, my probabilities are around 98%