Contingent Orders:
If XLE at or above 44.80 (+2.25 st. deviations):
a) Close PUT diagonal
b) Buy 3x 44/48 CALL Vertical spreads
c) Evaluate where to re-open PUT diagonal (not automatic, analyze risk profile)
If XLE at or bellow 32.65 (-6.0 st. deviations):
a) Close CALL diagonal
b) Buy 3x 33/28 PUT Vertical spreads
c) Evaluate where to re-open CALL diagonal (not automatic, analyze risk profile)
Risk profile: TOS gives me only 16.4% Probability of needing an adjustment on the up-side, that`s great.
Dashboard: Trade is profitable despite large volatility drop this week
Historical Probability: For 20 trading days, the historical chances of staying within the range are awesome!
2 comments:
Gustavo, usually the probability of touching is more probable than the probability of expiring. Did you factor this in? Also, With your 68% probability of expiring in 1 week (Mar 20); the band enclosed your upper adjustment number. I would suspect your prob. number may be off. Just my first thoughts.
Gus: ignore my earlier comment; I see that your risk chart already uses the prob of expiring. Nice analysis on both !
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