04/11 XLE Double Diagonal - Closed

I opted for exiting the trade before the expiration week, the fact XLE moved back up and got closer to the up-side break-even didn't help. I ran a decision tree on the trade and evaluated the 3 possible scenarios: staying flat, moving up and moving down.. Basically only a move down could help, and therefore the probabilities were against keeping the position. Here is the

dashboard and decision tree I used: