04/11 EWZ Double Diagonal

EWZ decided to go wild as soon as I placed the trade. Notice we had a lot of up-days, now beyond 1.5 st. deviation on the volatility cone. The one thing I noticed is the difference between the Double-Diagonal and the 45-Day condor, notice the condor is down almost 10% with price still inside 1 st. deviation, the double-diagonal is losing 12% with price beyond 1.5 st. deviation on the cone..

Note: We are super close to the adjustment level 65% chance of hitting it Monday. One could have adjusted at end of day on Thursday, I wasn't monitoring the position, and even if I was, chances are I would not have touched. I'm tired of messing around and deviating from my plan. the purpose of this blog is to keep me honest, I put the plan in place and follow it, results and experience will tell me what to adjust on the plan, that simple.

Volatility has dropped by quite a bit, but the trade was originally structured to not have much vega risk, so it isn't hurting, in fact it might have helped the position early on.

Probabilities with 25 trading sessions to go:
59.8% implied probability of success
80% historical probability of success

Dashboard, historical probability and profile: