04/04 GLD Calendar

Sometimes, you snooze you loose.. GLD moved back down for two days in a row and threw away the small profits we had. Something inside of me was telling me to take profits on this trade. I stuck to the plan, for better or worse. Now we`re back to where we started, however, there is time decay working in our favor, based on TOS we recover about 1% for every day that goes by, so the weekend alone will recover the trade.

As far as probabilities are concerned, there is 54% historical and 45% implied probability it will expire within the range.

NOTE: I`m thinking about adjusting this position back to the 89 calendar. I want to avoid over-trading and stay objective, so I`ll run a decision tree on it. It will be something similar to what I did for the XLE double-diagonal

Bellow are the historical probability, dashboard and risk profile charts: