Saturday, April 4, 2009

04/04 XLE Double Diagonal

Time Decay is helping this trade a lot! XLE moved up again last week, yet the position P&L improved (see dashboard). With just 10 days to go, probabilities of expiring inside the B/E range is still very good, we have 61% of historical probability and 55.6% of implied probability.

Stops are far away from price, and chances of hitting the up-side stop Monday are small, over 98% chance it will be fine Monday.

Bellow are the historical probability, dashboard and price profile pictures:

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