04/04 MNX 45-Day Condor

This was a rough week to start any trade, this MNX position took it to the chin, yet it is still standing! MNX went up, up and then up some more for the week, there is still a lot of time left on the condor, one could adjust it from here, I'm committed to keeping them simple, so will stick to the original trade plan and use 1.5x cashflow as the stop on the trade..

Probabilities are still looking good, with 30 days to go there is 92% historical and 78% implied probability of expiring within the Break even.

As far as the stops are concerned, I was looking at the risk profile and noticed a difference in P&L and the stop based on delta. If we hit a 30 delta on the call side, it is showing the P&L to be less than -1.5x the cashflow, only a 32 delta would hit the stop. I need to evaluate this with the market open to make sure these values are correct, in the mean-time I will use 32 delta as the risk profile is suggesting. There is 91% chance it will be fine Monday.

Bellow are probability, dashboard and risk profile: